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International energy markets to diversify

Release date:2013-07-09
 2008 Development of the first half of the international energy market remained stable, but in the second half as the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the global financial crisis on a global scale widening and deepening of the international energy market has also been affected and increased volatility, particularly traditional energy sources and new energy development, increasing uncertainties.Therefore, actively exploring the world of energy diversification. Looking at the 2008 international energy market has the following three aspects of characteristics. 

The international crude oil market turmoil  

first half of 2008, international oil prices basically continued the upward trend over the past two years, the OPEC basket oil price July 3 hit $ 140.73 / barrel record high in July the average monthly oil price once reached 131.22 U.S. dollars / barrel highest point in history. Soaring oil prices, OPEC faces many accusations and pressure, but OPEC has always insisted that the market supply and demand balance, "speculation" and other non-market factors are the main reason to push prices higher. In the second half due to the international financial crisis, "hype" factor gradually withdraw from the market, the international crude oil prices started to return to the principle of supply and demand. As widely expected by the international financial crisis, the next two years, the international crude oil demand will have fallen sharply, the international crude oil prices also fell sharply. Since entering December, the New York futures market, oil prices have fallen below 50 U.S. dollars / barrel, OPEC basket oil price dropped to 40 U.S. dollars / barrel, down to the level of early 2005, just four months decline has been more than 100 U.S. dollars. OPEC's ministerial meeting in November decided to convene a special quota of Nissan fell 1.5 million barrels / day, but this also failed to curb the decline in oil prices situation. 

The international financial crisis triggered by the global economic slowdown led to a drop in demand world oil consumption, particularly in the U.S., EU and Japan and other major members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, demand for crude oil fell more obvious. 2008 world oil demand growth is expected to fall by half compared with the beginning, only to reach 60 million barrels / day. On the other hand, since the second half of 2008 the international oil market supply environment continues to improve. The next two years, growth in non-OPEC oil production is expected to reach 700,000 barrels / day and 100 million barrels / day, while OPEC production capacity continues to expand in recent years, remaining at 300 million barrels / day level. It can be said, the international crude oil market supply and demand environment will remain accommodative. 

But OPEC's recent market continues to warn that the current sharp decline in international oil prices has been a serious threat to the interests of many oil-producing countries, some of the planned capacity expansion plans may be canceled or postponed, a move that could lead to medium-term crude oil supply international markets. Meanwhile, the price of oil fell sharply so that the "hype" factors in international crude oil "premium" was completely released. Whether Hurricane "Exeter", "Gustav" or armed conflict outside the Caucasus region, crude oil pipeline attacks in Nigeria and some oil equipment maintenance and accidents can easily be exploited those in previous years, "pushed" oil factor In the second half of this year, oil prices are difficult to deter. The current international financial crisis, the temporary exclusion of the hype factor, but as an international trading crude oil futures market is an important commodity, can only say, "speculation" factor temporarily receded. 

OPEC expected, the U.S., the EU and Japan and other countries cope with the international financial crisis and the effects of policies may be beginning to bear until the second half of next year, the three major oil consuming countries to that oil demand growth until the earliest possible signs of recovery. The next two years the relationship between oil producing and consuming countries will face some adjustments, the main consuming countries want to maintain a low oil price environment, contribute to the real economy recovery. The major oil producers will want to curb a sharp decline in oil prices, stabilize the international oil market, to ensure that the interests of oil-producing countries are not hurt. 

Accelerate the development of civilian nuclear energy use  

in 2008, the development of global civil nuclear power industry attention. Major energy consuming countries for its energy supply security concerns, unstable fossil fuel prices and the severe problem of greenhouse gas emissions are to make use of nuclear energy has been growing concern. 

Europe, Africa, Asia and Latin America, many developed and developing countries alike to select or reselect the development and utilization of nuclear power. Since nuclear power construction project investment, related industries and more, some countries also explicitly develop nuclear power to expand investment and domestic demand as an important measure to ease the international financial crisis on the negative impact of export trade. Meanwhile, the expanding application areas of nuclear energy, in addition to nuclear electricity, water desalination, district heating, industrial applications, coal liquefaction, hydrogen production and use of nuclear energy and other fields have also been strengthened. 
Safety records in the world's nuclear power industry has been significantly improved and strengthened risk control, the integration of nuclear power management, lessons learned and sharing of information. As of June 2008, more than 30 countries worldwide running total of 439 nuclear power plants with a total capacity of 372 GW. In addition, there are 34 units total capacity of 28 GW of generating units are under construction. 2008 nuclear power generation capacity over 2.7 trillion kwh, electricity generation accounts for about 14% of total global electricity generation, providing the world's total energy consumption by 6%. In Western Europe, nuclear power accounted for nearly 30% of the generating capacity in North America and Eastern Europe, about 18%, in Africa and Latin America accounted for 1.8% and 2.6%, 11.5% in the Far East, the Middle East and South Asia (1.6%). 

Already have nuclear power in most of the 30 countries to improve the use of nuclear power and promotion of incentives, which 24 countries have approved the construction of new nuclear power plants, many plans to build new nuclear power plants more than 1,000 MW of large-scale reactors. In addition, there are about 51 countries over the past two years, the introduction of nuclear power expressed interest, including a total of 22 African and Latin American countries, the Asia-Pacific region, there are 17. 

Development of alternative energy re Difficult Problems  

in the past two years, oil prices, promoting alternative energy sources on a global scale to develop rapidly. Europe, America, Japan and other developed countries have prioritized the development of alternative energy projects, and put a lot of manpower and material resources to develop their own alternative energy industry. Current European wind, solar and biomass energy industry, Japan's solar industry, innovative use of water resources in the United States have made ​​considerable progress. Developing countries to catch up, in the relevant field also made ​​tremendous progress. On the whole application and industry environment, among the best in Europe and Japan, the U.S. and China in recent years have passed related legislation, for the alternative energy industry environment created to provide a good foundation. Currently, the world has been in the field of alternative energy over 100 million employees in the next few decades, the development of alternative energy technologies will create millions in the world of new jobs. 

In addition to the world's major energy consuming countries focus on developing alternative energy sources, in 2008, Central Asia and Southeast Asia also highlights the development of alternative energy sources. Statistics show that as of now, the Gulf countries are or will soon be launched in the alternative energy projects have more than 120, in addition to solar energy, as well as nuclear, wind, hydrogen and coal, etc., a total investment of $ 160 billion. Indonesia, Southeast Asia this year to develop alternative energy development goals, plans through the development of micro-hydro, biofuels and geothermal energy and other new energy and renewable energy, in order to supply capacity of the country in 2011 increased by 25% than it is now. While Singapore plans to build Asia's largest biodiesel producing an estimated annual output will reach 180 million tons. But the second half of 2008 by the international financial crisis, the international crude oil prices fell sharply, alternative energy development is also once again into the inherent problems. International oil prices during the past, the cost of crude oil products soaring, alternative energy research and development will be the climax, and once the international oil prices, crude oil product cost reductions, alternative energy research and development will be stalled, because the cost of crude oil imports decreased oil Sales prices down resulting in some higher-cost alternative energy disadvantages highlighted. It can be said baking in alternative energy development, government and business interests oriented obvious. The purpose is to develop alternative energy sources to reduce dependence on crude oil market, but there is no kind of alternative energy can effectively meet the needs of the market, while addressing the problem of high costs. Second half of 2008 as the international crude oil prices fell sharply, since 2005 the climax of an alternative energy development may also come to an end. International Energy Agency, the latest report noted that over the next 20 years, global energy demand will increase by 50%, including 84% of traditional energy sources. So if there are no alternative energy technology qualitative breakthrough, or the price of crude oil and its products does not exceed the market's capacity, alternative energy is difficult to short-term alternative to traditional energy sources. 
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