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Copper prices rose to a metal cable connector industry a tremendous cost pressures

Release date:2013-07-16

Copper prices rebounded since January, after rising to $ 60,000 above the price of copper narrow range of oscillation up to three months, so long narrow finishing time history of rare. Situation changes in the macroeconomic environment in a foreign country, the domestic spot the traditional shopping season special time, the copper market outlook will be how to interpret the market focus. Written converge again when the volatility copper, about to enter the end, considering the recent domestic and international economic situation and the copper downstream situation, I believe that copper prices fell outlook is a high probability event. 
1, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data suggest the road to recovery is not flat, QE3 door closed unspeakable 
latest U.S. Labor Department data showed U.S. non-farm employment rose after the password markets popping, payrolls actually increased only 12.0 million people, October 2011 the smallest increase since, and for the first time since November last year, less than 200,000, far below the expected increase of 203,000. Prior to include weekly initial jobless claims, PMI employment index and the ADP private employment and many other forward-looking indicators of labor market performed well; and if manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence index, factory orders and other economic indicators also show Good. In a variety of indicators under the guidance of a good majority of this month, market participants had expected employment data optimistic, however, was far less than expected payrolls data. Therefore, the initial point of view, although the United States has not changed the basic direction of the road to recovery, but weak payrolls data and preliminary data from a hand showing the premises of its roads are not all the way flat. Basic economic fundamentals weak pre continuous cooling is expected QE3 expected to continue to exist, even if the unemployment rate fell to three-year low of 8.2%. 
2, the European economic downturn, but should not be too pessimistic long-term 
debt issues in Europe early mainstream media has become the focus of attention, so the non-US currencies such as the euro tumbled into a long-term, but as a "firewall" through the expansion and success of Greek bonds replacement, the European debt crisis is gradually away from the whirlpool. While Italy, Spain and Portugal yields had continuous rise, causing the market worried about the debt crisis could come back at any time, I believe that in the large-scale implementation of the European Central Bank has repeatedly term refinancing operation, the more stable the European debt crisis , the future market prospects for economic growth will shift the focus onto the market more concerned about economic growth in the region can lay the foundation for future solvency and shaped in a virtuous economic cycle. Recent economic data from the European point of view, the region's economic growth outlook is not ideal, so the market is still haunt the region's solvency, this apprehension psychology will continue to linger in the market coming over, dampening investor enthusiasm to do more . 
3, the form of domestic inflation is still not to be underestimated, continue to relax the pace of domestic feed-than-expected slowdown in 
March domestic economic data are generally not ideal, including HSBC PMI, industrial growth is lower than the mean over the years and the average profits of industrial enterprises for the first time negative growth. Deviation economic data combined with 2012 consecutive year central bank bills and February CPI stopped falling rapidly, the market is generally expected in April will again loosen monetary policy, there may even re-cut the deposit reserve. But on April 9 announced in March the price data, the March CPI higher than expected, rose 3.6%, up 0.2%. Which food prices rose 7.5%, up 0.2%. The March CPI unexpectedly makes or will slow the pace of monetary easing, although the basic direction of policy easing unchanged. 
3.1 Domestic imports of copper continues to increase, inventory pressures are emerging 
, according to General Administration of Customs released three months before the news shows 2012 refined copper imports continued substantial growth in the fourth quarter of last year, the continuation of the situation. Given the current domestic copper consumption is not busy season spot features almost been formed, and the loss of nearly two months of imports continues to expand, for February's massive imports of copper and its related products, most analysts moved accidentally. I believe that most of these imports are long-term contracts of copper, due to the current market but obviously within the weak, and the forward market is conducive to short extension, so most refined copper hoard at a reasonable price right bonded after the line waiting for entry, for some liquidity tight financing ahead of the declaration of copper sales. 
From the period of the inventory data, the larger the absolute value of domestic stocks, 
March growth rate is fairly flat, but according to Standard Chartered Bank research data show that Shanghai bonded copper stocks are currently about 55 million tons, a significant than before rise, the stock may continue to rise, a conservative estimate by the end may reach 60 million tons. Given financing copper is still rampant, a lot of copper in the bonded area awaiting financing at reasonable prices after the entry declarations and imports increased again in March is still high probability, therefore, the domestic spot in April is still difficult to reduce the excess supply pressure, external hard within the weak pattern changed. Once the domestic market prices in favor of entry declarations, the influx of a large number of cathode copper is bound to intensify pressure on the domestic oversupply, copper prices will be overwhelmed. 
Conclusion: 
Overall, the current domestic copper consumption is not busy season features have appeared on the stage house and bonded inventory pressure is gradually increasing pressure on domestic prices above. From the macroeconomic environment, although the U.S. QE3 expectations still exist, but real economic recovery trend remains unchanged so that the possibility of QE3 launch hard up the heat, in addition to short-term fluctuations in economic data, market confidence, Italy and Spain, bond yields rise again will exacerbate towards the latter part of the debt market concerns. Therefore, the author is not optimistic about the medium-term price of copper, the next break below support 59000 continue down probability.


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